ANALYSIS: Are Socio-Cultural Groups’ Endorsements Crucial To Election Victory In Nigeria?

Following the fiasco that accompanied Afenifere parallel endorsements of two different candidates for the forthcoming presidential election in 2923, AllNews Nigeria’s fact-check desk examines the relevance of the candidate endorsements of the five most prominent socio-cultural groups in recent elections in Nigeria. Have they ever affected the outcome of the last two elections?

The lovely country called Nigeria is strapped with over 250 ethnic groups.

In between, politicians have found validation, certification and endorsement by the leaders of these ethnic groups relevant to their political campaigns.

Not only that, but socio-cultural organisations have also found their way into becoming important stakeholders in the build-up of any election in Nigeria. 

Egbe Afenifere, Ohaneze Ndigbo, Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), the Middle Belt Forum (MBF) and the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) have been the most vibrant among these socio-cultural groups for years.

How relevant, then, are the endorsements and recommendations made by these bodies to the electoral victory of the presidential candidates they endorsed in the last two elections? 

2015 Presidential Election 

On the eve of the presidential election in 2015, the Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, recommended and supported the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Dr Goodluck Jonathan. 

Vanguard Newspaper of January 18, 2015, reported that the group’s official spokesperson, Late Yinka Odumakin briefed journalists in Akure after the group’s leaders held a meeting with then-president Jonathan and decided to pitch their tent with him for his reelection.

This is the same place APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu visited on Sunday.

According to Senator Ameh Ebute, an elder statesman of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), as quoted by Premium Times on January 17, 2013, the group also endorsed the PDP presidential candidate, Jonathan, for the 2015 poll.

The group said it had made appropriate consultation, and the candidate had passed every requirement. 

Chief Enwo Igariwey spearheaded the leaders of Ohaneze Ndigbo, who endorsed Jonathan on February 3, 2015, as reported by the Daily Post, even though there were disagreements over the endorsement as the other faction of the group led by Raph Obioha did not support the blessing. 

Ohaneze Ndigbo said it was behind Goodluck Jonathan because of pragmatic reasons of continuity and a sense of solidarity. 

The Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) did not hide their support for one of their own, the PDP candidate at the time, Goodluck Jonathan, in 2015.

The group was stout and at the forefront of canvassing for votes for the PDP presidential candidate. The surge was led by the group’s head, Chief Edwin Clarke.

AllNews Nigeria can confirm that only the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) backed the eventual winner of the 2015 presidential election among the five most prominent socio-cultural groups in focus. 

The forum’s spokesman and former vice-chancellor of the Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Professor Ango Abdullahi, made the position of the group public in a press conference in Zaria, Kaduna state, on January 8, 2015. 

The eventual winner of the presidential race, Muhammadu Buhari, was from the All Progressives Congress (APC) during the election.

2019 Presidential Election

The National President of the Middle Belt Forum MBF, Dr Bitrus Pogu, enunciated that the group made a collective and wholesome decision to support PDP’s Atiku Abubakar as the battle for the presidential seat in 2019 hit full force.

In 2019, Afenifere did not also change its position. The group punched their weight behind the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who was the eventual runner-up in the election.

Late Yinka Odumakin, the National Publicity Secretary of the organisation, told the Punch Newspaper that the organisation went for Atiku because he had restructuring Nigeria in his mind. 

Endorsing Atiku Abubakar by Ohaneze Ndigbo was not uniform across the board. A faction of the group was not part of the endorsement.

The Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the organisation, Mr Chuks Ibegbu, dismissed that the group had endorsed the candidate.

But on January 24, 2019, Nigerian Tribune later revealed that the group in a communique issued after a meeting with the elders of the body issued a communique made available to journalists and signed by John Nnia Nwodo, President General, Ohaneze Ndigbo World Wide where the organisation documented its official support for the PDP candidate. 

Through the revelation of the Secretary of the group on February 12, 2019, Dr Alfred Mulade, Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) did not only want the PDP presidential candidate to win but the leaders and elders of the forum also cherished Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s ambition and declared their total supports for Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the 2019 general polls. 

On March 18, 2018, all northern socio-cultural groups warned their members against supporting the eventual winner of the 2019 presidential election, Muhammadu Buhari, through a communique signed by the leaders of the group.

Professor Ango Abdullahi, CON (Chairman ACF Political Committee and Convener, Northern Elders Forum), Dr Yima Sen (Northern Elders Forum, NEF), Amb. Ibrahim Mai Sule (Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF), Engr. Bello Suleiman (CODE Group), Mataimaki Tom Maiyashi (Arewa Research Development Project, ARDP) and Zannah Hassan Boguma (Borno Elders Forum) are a few among the northern elders who signed the communique.

Our Verdict

Even the meeting all leaders of these five most prominent socio-cultural organisations held on February 3, 2019, held at Sheraton Hotel, Abuja, did not propel the candidate they jointly endorsed to power in the 2019 presidential poll.

Chief Ayo Adebanjo (Afenifere), Chief Nnia Nwodo (Ohanaeze), Ango Abdullahi Northern Elders Forum), Chief Edwin Clark (Pan-Niger Delta Forum) and Bitrus Pogu (Middle Belt Forum) were at the meeting. 

Conclusion 

Endorsement by sociocultural groups has had no or little effect on the eventual election result.