ANALYSIS: Why Governor Seyi Makinde Could Lose His Seat In Oyo

Oyo state is the symbol of national politics in Nigeria. The state has 33 local governments and five different zones including Ibadan, Oyo, Ogbomoso, Okeogun and Ibarapa, alongside an incumbent governor whose second-term fate is hanging on a forlorn pedal, Governor Seyi Makinde.

He is an astute member of the G5 governors, governors from the southern part of the country unhappy with the scheme of things in their political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

They decided against endorsing the presidential candidature of Atiku Abubakar, their party’s flagbearer. 

Governor Seyi Makinde could be hitting the wrong wall on March 11 when Nigerians would match to the polls for the gubernatorial election across the country.

The G5 governors seem to be losing

Members of the G5 governors are losing their stride as they could hardly eat their cake and have it back.

Enugu State governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, lost his senatorial ambition to the candidate of the Labour Party, Okechukwu Ezea.

Despite having represented Udenu/Igbo-Eze North Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives for three terms of 12 years, Ugwuanyi would be retiring his administrative ambition after completing his eight years of two tenures as the governor of Enugu State. 

In the case of Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State who even aligned with the party of the moment, the Labour Party for the presidency, he also lost his bid to clinch the Benue North West senatorial seat to his former aide, Chief Titus Zam of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

While Governor Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) won his Saturday’s parliamentary election and Governor Nyesom Wike did not run for any office after losing the party’s primary, the loss of the two other governors at their respective polls is a glimmer that Seyi Makinde could also be sent packing.

Oyo state has produced a single two-term governor ever

One of the rich histories of Oyo is the unflinching political enlightenment evident in the state’s politics.

Until late Governor Abiola Ajimobi became returned in 2015, no one had ever governed Oyo state for two terms.

It is so because the state has wielding and competitive political and electoral structure that strains any form of dictatorship. 

There is also the school of thought that Governor Ajimobi who was the first two-term governor did not fare well in his second attempt. 

Therefore, some Oyo citizens could be reluctant to activate the “Omituntun 2.0” as the governor brands his second term agenda.

APC is stronger

With the All Progressives Congress clinching all three senatorial seats in the state, the party is in the best momentum it could hope for to wrestle the gubernatorial seat from Makinde.

In an interaction with two of the senators-elect in the state, Barrister Sarafadeen Abiodun Alli (Oyo South) and Dr Yunus Akintunde (Oyo Central) today, they maintained that the party is waxing stronger and would coast home on March 11.

“We worked very hard to get here and we’ve taken up the challenge to keep the push going till we deliver our gubernatorial candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin”, Akintunde said.

“There is no iota of support from the governor for us because his party also had their senatorial candidates.

“We didn’t get to where we are because of administrative favour”, Barrister Alli added, quashing the rumour that they won because the governor supported them.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) and the gubernatorial candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin are in the best stride after clearing all the local governments in the state in the just-concluded presidential election for their presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu.

He performed poorly with the coalition

The trio of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Action Democratic Congress (ADC) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) among other parties produced Governor Makinde in 2019.

According to Barrister Alli today, the governor handled the resolution of the coalition woefully 

Alli is in the right position to comment as the gubernatorial candidate of the ZLP at the time.

Many of the stakeholders who supported the governor in 2019 to the seat have left because of alleged breaches of the agreement. 

Some believe he has not done enough

The governor who has promptly paid the salaries of government workers since he assumed office will need to convince the people that he could do better than pay monthly salaries.

Though prompt salary payment was a selling point in the early years of his administration, the uniqueness of the benefit began to wane as the administration wore on.