Crude Oil Demand From OPEC-13 Expected To Reach 29.3 mb/d In 2023 - Report

Demand for crude oil from the OPEC-13 is anticipated to reach 29.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023.

This is in accordance with the monthly oil market report (MOMR) from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was published on Monday.

The report states that the demand for OPEC-13 crude oil in 2023 is downgraded from the previous estimate by 0.2 mb/d to stand at 29.3 mb/d, which is roughly 0.7 mb/d more than in 2022.

In the meantime, the demand for OPEC-13 crude in 2022 is reduced from the previous MOMR by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 28.6 mb/d, which is almost 0.5 mb/d more than in 2021.

According to the analysis, Nigeria and Iraq saw the biggest increases in OPEC-13 crude oil production in October 2022, while Saudi Arabia and Angola saw decreases.

The report also noted a 0.21% decrease in OPEC-13 crude oil output in October 2022.

The company recorded a monthly average production of 29.49 million barrels per day (mb/d) for October 2022 and 29.70 mb/d for September 2022, both of which were down 210 thousand barrels per day from the previous month.

According to the MOMR, OPEC-13 crude production in Q1 2012 averaged 28.4 mb/d, which is 0.3 mb/d less than demand.

OPEC produced 28.6 mb/d of crude oil on average in Q2 2022, which is 0.2 mb/d more than what was needed.

It produced 29.5 mb/d of crude oil on average in Q3 2022, 1.1 mb/d more than what was needed.

The MOMR estimated the global oil demand for 2023 to be 101.8 mb/d. According to the paper, "anticipated geopolitical improvements and the containment of COVID-19 in China support the world oil demand increase in 2023, which is revised down by about 0.1 mb/d to stand at 2.2 mb/d to average 101.8 mb/d.

Factors affecting the demand and supply of oil on a global scale include high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, high levels of sovereign debt, tightening labour markets, and persistent supply chain constraints.

The MOMR contains indicators that the world economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty and rising challenges.

A global slowdown is anticipated to occur as a result of these in 4Q/2022.

It's expected that the slowdown will persist throughout H1/2023 according to OPEC, global growth in 2023 is forecast at 2.5%.

Despite a 0.21 percent decline in OPEC's petroleum production for October 2022, Nigeria's crude production output grew to over a million barrels per day (mb/d).

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously stated that daily output for October 2022 would be 1.01 mb/d, up from 972K bpd in August and 937K bpd in September.

Based on direct contact, OPEC estimates Nigeria's crude oil production for October 2022 to be 1.01 mb/d.

On the other hand, OPEC estimates Nigeria's crude oil production at 1.05 mb/d based on secondary sources.

The OPEC report stated that Nigeria's economic outlook has been impacted by the devastating rains and floods that have affected 31 of Nigeria's 36 states and caused a significant loss of land, lives, and livelihoods despite recording more than a million barrels per day of crude production in October 2022.

Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela are members of the OPEC-13.