Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced that the capacity of the Dangote refinery would account for more than half of the planned increases in distillation in Africa over the medium term.
The declaration was made by OPEC and was included in its World Oil Outlook statement that was released on Monday.
According to OPEC, medium-term distillation expansions in Africa are anticipated at about 1.2 mb/d.
The 650 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) Dangote refinery in Nigeria is responsible for more than half of this total.
“In Africa, medium-term distillation additions are estimated at around 1.2 mb/d.
More than a half of this number is accounted for by Nigeria’s 650 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) Dangote refinery.”
The Dangote refinery is the biggest refinery development or extension anticipated for Africa in the medium term.
In addition to the Dangote refinery, the following refinery developments are anticipated in Africa:
The Soyo, Angola-based 100 tb/d refinery, Algeria's expansion of the 110 tb/d Hassi Messaoud refinery, Egypt's 160 tb/d expansion of the Midor refinery, the Guinean 10 tb/d Brahms modular refinery, and the Republic of Congo's 110 tb/d Pointe Noire II refinery.
Additionally anticipated is the commissioning of additional, mostly modular units in Ghana and Senegal.
According to OPEC, these new project expansions and improvements could aid in supplying Africa's quickly rising demand, which is mostly driven by the Dangote refinery.
In the long run, the total required long-term refining capacity additions in Africa is expected to be 3.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by Africa's robust demand growth, even though the projects in the pipeline will address some degree of need.
These expansions would aid in reducing product imports into some nations while also covering the surge in demand.
The primary obstacles for the continent in constructing the necessary capacity on time continue to be ongoing rivalry with product inflows from other markets and issues linked to project funding and completion.
Any cancellations or delays will inevitably result in increased product imports.
The OPEC outlook stated that according to recent reports, the Dangote refinery commissioning is likely to be delayed from 2022 to 2023, partly due to financial issues.
Increased capacity for Nigeria: Over the medium term, several small modular refineries with up to 20 tb/d of capacity are forecast to be added to Nigeria, providing the nation with much-needed capacity.
By 2027, the potential total refining capacity will have increased to above 1 mb/d, primarily as a result of West African additions that have been announced, including Dangote's in Nigeria.
Refineries in Nigeria's Warri, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna are now being renovated. According to the OPEC perspective, Africa is home to many idle refineries, some of which are being renovated.
Long-term throughputs and utilisation rates could be considerably greater in Africa if the renovations are successful.
With these expansions, refinery throughputs might rise from 1.8 mb/d in 2021 to 4.8 mb/d in 2045 as a result of high-demand growth and medium- and long-term refining capacity additions.
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