Edo Election: How Buhari, Oshiomhole, Tinubu Caused Ize-Iyamu’s  Loss (ANALYSIS)

On Saturday the people of Edo came out en masse to elect their choice leader for the next four years.

The election - which was recorded to be one of the most peaceful elections in the state against the forecast of violence and intimidation as predicted by election observers - had the incumbent Governor and the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Godwin Obaseki defeating All Progressives Congress' (APC) Osagie Ize-Iyamu, his main contender, and 12 candidates of other political parties.

Polling a total of 223619, Ize-Iyamu was unable to match Obaseki who polled a total of 307, 955 and winning 13 of the 18 local government areas in the state to retain his position as the state governor.

While a lot of political observers pointed out that it will be difficult to decide who was going to emerge winner of the election, an opinion poll conducted by AllNews and targeted at the Edo voters predicted that the incumbent governor, Obaseki, was going to emerge victorious.

This article will be examining how the top guns in the APC might have caused the major contender Ize-Iyamu lose the governorship seat to PDP’s Obaseki.

Oshiomhole (End of Godfatherism)

Obaseki was initially elected in 2016 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and was believed to have banked on the popularity of his predecessor Adams Oshiomhole to emerge Governor.

While that might have been true, Obaseki, however, had rancour with his predecessor in 2019 which made them become political enemies.

The disagreement, however, caused him to get disqualified from the primary election from the APC after which he moved to the main opposition party PDP with his Deputy Governor Philp Shaibu, where they clinched the party's governorship ticket.

However, the people of Edo State were made to believe that the reason for the rancour between Obaseki and Oshiomhole was because Oshiomhole wanted to be in charge of the state’s affairs despite not being the Governor just as Tinubu is believed to be in charge of the affairs of Lagos.

While a majority of the people were unhappy with Oshiomhole for wanting to take charge of the state’s affairs, they however swore to support and vote for Obaseki.

Also, there has been a popular belief amongst the people that the incumbent governor Godwin Obaseki performed well in his first four years as governor.

Tinubu (Godfatherism ‘Edo No Be Lagos’)

Tinubu was dragged into the Edo Governorship vocal battle after he told the people of Edo state during one of the campaigns of the APC to vote against governor Obaseki as he was an enemy of democracy and the rule of law.

Tinubu who was the Governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007 is believed to still have a hand in the affairs of the state and in choosing who emerges as the state governor against the people's will.

Capitalizing on the ‘Edo no be Lagos’ phrase, Obaseki’s campaign team did an excellent job with motivating the people of Edo state to not only come out en masse to vote but to also monitor and guide their votes against ballot box snatchers and vote buyers.

Despite reports of vote-buying, the people of Edo were able to apprehend ballot box snatchers, according to credible media reports.

Buhari (Fuel Price Hike, Electricity Tariff, and State of the Economy)

President Muhammadu Buhari who has been commended for distancing himself from the election might have however indirectly influenced the loss of  Ize-Iyamu with the recent hike in fuel price and electricity tariff, as Nigerians are of the tradition of measuring the capacity of a candidate with the performance of the political party in other positions.

The recent increase in electricity tariff and the price of fuel has made a lot of Nigerians regret re-electing Buhari for a second term.

The fear of having a replica of Buhari’s type of government in Edo State might also have been a factor that made electorates vote against Ize-Iyamu at the governorship election.

However, stakeholders await the next step that the APC will be taking with respect to contesting the result of the polls.