I'm Glad My Prediction About COVID-19 Cases In Africa Was Wrong - Bill Gates

Billionaire and philanthropist, Bill Gates, says that he is glad that he was wrong about his fear of the high rate of COVID-19 cases in low-income countries.

Gates, in his end of year note, said that it is a thing of wonder that COVID-19 cases in low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa have been lower than projected.

He noted that the only country in the region hardest-hit by the virus in South Africa yet its case rate is 40 percent lower than what is recorded in the US, and its death rate 50 percent lower.

Gates said, “One thing I’m happy to have been wrong about—at least, I hope I was wrong—is my fear that COVID-19 would run rampant in low-income countries.

“So far, this hasn’t been true. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, for example, case rates and death rates remain much lower than in the U.S. or Europe and on par with New Zealand, which has received so much attention for its handling of the virus.

“The hardest-hit country on the continent is South Africa—but even there, the case rate is 40 percent lower than in the U.S., and the death rate is nearly 50 percent lower.

READ ALSO: Second Wave: Not Less Than 20 Doctors Have Died Of COVID-19 - NMA Reveals

“More than 1.6 million people have died in the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 75 million cases and tens of trillions of dollars in economic damages."

He disclosed that there was still some data collation ongoing to understand why the cases in Africa aren't as high as expected.

He said, “more than 1.6 million people have died in the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 75 million cases and tens of trillions of dollars in economic damages.

“It helped that some countries locked down early. In Africa, another reason may be that the population is young compared with the rest of the world’s, and young people are less susceptible to the virus.

“Another reason could be that its large rural population spends a lot of time outside, where it’s harder to spread the virus. It is also possible—though I hope this is not the case—that the true numbers are higher than they look because gaps in poor countries’ health care systems are making it hard to monitor the disease accurately.

“Why does it rank so low in Africa? It’s not just the relatively low incidence of COVID-19 there. It’s also because shifting health workers to focus on the coronavirus disrupted efforts to detect and treat HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases. As a result, COVID-19 stayed low on the list of health threats, but other problems came roaring back.

“Another reason is that patients are more reluctant to go to clinics for fear they might become infected—and that means more severe conditions are going undiagnosed. In India, for example, the diagnosis rate for tuberculosis has dropped by roughly a third. With more undetected cases, more people will probably die from the disease.

“This is another reason why the world’s goal should be to make sure that lifesaving tools reach—and are practical for—every country, not just rich ones.”