Unknotting The Uncertainties Surrounding The 2023 Election Results

The 2023 presidential election has come but it has not gone because charades of uncertainties have accompanied the polls that the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would be curious about how to unknot the 25% debacle surrounding the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

The election could face an unprecedented constitutional crisis.

After losing his stronghold, APC’s Bola Tinubu would still end up with the highest number of votes.

Additionally, he has also met the threshold of scoring at least 25 per cent of valid votes in at least 24 states of the federation.

But the candidate has a snag to deal with, the constitution says and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), one of the places he failed to accumulate 25% of total valid votes.

According to the result in the FCT announced by INEC, APC had just 19.8 per cent and PDP 16.1 per cent, while Labour Party had 61 per cent.

From lawyers to public analysts and rumour mongers, many Nigerians have begun to give the debacle different interpretations.

Is this the first time we will be in a similar national imbroglio?

AllNews Nigeria’s fact check desk can report that the country was in a similar complicated situation in 1979.

The eventual winner, Shehu Shagari, had  25 per cent in 12 of the then 19 states of the federation.

Meanwhile, the 1979 Constitution required him to garner at least 25 per cent in two-thirds of the states, with discrepancies surrounding what would be two-thirds of 19 states. Should it be 12 or 13?

To put the contemplation to bed, the supreme court concluded that it would be “12 two-thirds” — meaning 25 percent in 12 states and 25 percent of two-thirds of a 13th state which Shagari winning the election after satisfying the requirement.

Now that the result of FCT has been announced, APC had just 19.8 per cent and PDP 16.1 per cent, compared to Labour Party’s 61 per cent.

What will Nigeria do?

The Constitution speaks 

Section 134 (2) says: “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election: (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

“(3) In a default of a candidate duly elected in accordance with subsection (2) of this section their shall be a second election in accordance with subsection (4) of this section at which the only candidates shall be (a) the candidate who scored the highest number of votes at any election held in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and (b) one among the remaining candidates who has a majority of votes in the highest number of States, so however that where there are more than one candidate with majority of votes in the highest number of States, the candidate among them with the highest total of votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.”

From Femi Falana

AllNews Nigeria monitored the position of Femi Falana, a senior lawyer while interacting with Channels TV in January 2023.

According to the legal luminary, winning the FCT is not a prerequisite presidential election triumphing provision in Nigeria.

He added that the courts have ruled that pursuant to Section 299 of the constitution, the FCT should be treated as a state. 

“You don’t have to win the FCT; if you meet the requirement, that is two-thirds of the majority of states in the country. You don’t have to win the FCT.”

Section 299 of the constitution says: “The provisions of this Constitution shall apply to the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja as if it were one of the States of the Federation.”

What will INEC do?

INEC has already had a lot to contend with, to the point that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s national agent, Senator Dino Melaye caused a national uproar at the National Collation Centre on Monday. 

The likes of the leadership of the Labour Party and former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, have also called on the electoral umpire to cancel the election.

All eyes are fixed on what the body will do at the end of the day.

The options

INEC could declare the winner and expect the opponents to go to court for interpretation, meaning that any disgruntled parties would approach the federal court of appeal 

The commission could also approach the court itself for interpretation before declaring a winner.

The unlikeliest option is for INEC to declare the election inconclusive and organise a second election within seven days, as provided for under section 134 (3) of the constitution.